Wildfires in Canada choking New York: But Why?
Yesterday in New York was one of the most bizarre days I've ever had in my lifetime of living on Long Island. By 2pm, you could smell smoke inside my office, the sky was dark, and all of the windows had a yellow tint to them. The wildfire smoke from Canada had reached the northeast USA, and it was startling all of us.
By the time New York was enveloped in yellow-orange haze, all of the news networks were covering the curious event in our major metropolitan area. The Air Quality Index for New York City was actually the worst it has ever been, and those with jobs outside were urged to suspend their work. Schools dismissed students early and switched to remote learning. NYC weighed in as the #2 worst place for air quality on the planet, second to Delhi, India.
In my almost-three-decades on the planet, I've never seen wildfire smoke in my home state before, not even when wildfires burned in Long Island's Pine Barrens in 2012.
What I want to know is: Why is wildfire smoke from Canada affecting the eastern USA? Are wildfires common in this region of Canada? And do these fires have anything to do with our rapidly changing climate? I'm going to see if I can find answers to those questions.
If these wildfires are happening in Ontario and Quebec, then why is the smoke reaching New York City and beyond?
To answer this question, we need to talk about weather systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, where I live, we have low pressure systems that spin in a counterclockwise direction. Think about when you've watched the news and have seen hurricanes - they are low pressure systems that look like a big, spinning spiral. We get weather from low pressure systems all the time: they often bring wind, clouds, and rain. Thunderstorms and tornadoes are great examples of low pressure system weather.
By the afternoon of June 7th, a low pressure system hovered over the state of Maine. With this system came winds blowing counterclockwise over the entire northeast - causing the haze, ash, and smell of the Canadian wildfires to blow southeast, directly at New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
Above: A map showing the air pressure at 2pm on Wednesday, June 7th. A low pressure system hovers over Maine, causing winds from Quebec and Ontario to blow southeast toward the tri-state area.
Map courtesy of Ventusky.
Above: Another map showing the location of the Canadian wildfires as well as wind directions. Map courtesy of NWS Atlanta.
Here’s the good news. The low pressure system that has been hovering over Maine is expected to return to a normal pressure by the evening of Thursday, June 8th, which means that wind patterns will lose strength, likely not moving the haze from the fires as far into the USA.
But here’s the bad news. There’s no guarantee that the eastern USA won’t be affected by these fires until they are out. Wind patterns are constantly shifting, and this could easily happen again in the coming days.
So why haven’t we seen anything like this before?
Are wildfires normal in Ontario and Quebec?
Wildfires can be a natural process that promote decay and regrowth in forests all over the world, and Canada is no stranger to them. Weather conditions in places like British Columbia make the land susceptible to fires, particularly ones caused by humans. But that's on the west side of Canada - what's happening on the East side?
In general, forest fires occur in Ontario and Quebec. This year, fires began popping up in southern Ontario and western Quebec in April. As the season went on, fires began to move further north.
As of June 8th, 2023, there have been 135 fires in Ontario and 403 in Quebec. There are currently 47 active fires in Ontario alone. 53% of the fires reported in Quebec have been as a result of lightning, compared to 11% in 2022.
A particularly dry winter and spring are most likely to blame. While there is regular variability in precipitation from year to year, the dryness these past few months has enabled vegetation to ignite, both from natural causes like lightning and human related causes like recreation. Additionally, strong winds and the lack of moisture in the ground allow fires to spread even more quickly.
2023 is particularly bad, though. The 10 year average for forest fires in Ontario is 157; we are already at 135 fires in 2023. In Quebec's intensive zone, there is an average of about 430 fires per year; 403 have been reported as of June. This is turning out to be a historically bad year for forest fires in Canada, and the year is only halfway over.
Conditions are not expected to change throughout the rest of the summer, which means continued dryness and turbulent weather that causes lightning strikes to ignite fires. So while these Canadian provinces do experience wildfires, they have never experienced them on this scale before.
Above: The amount of fires in Ontario in 2023 and 2022, followed by the 10 year average. Courtesy of Gov’t of Ontario.
So what does any of this have to do with climate change?
That’s the golden question. Climate change is a phrase that gets thrown around during crises like that of the Canadian wildfires. But, it is hard to distinctly blame climate change for one event, as climate can only be defined by patterns over time. Let’s take a look at what can happen as we look to the future.
We already know that the average global temperature is increasing. In fact, it has increased by about 1 degree at average latitudes and 2-4 degrees in high latitudes (like Canada), according to Prof. Kent Moore at the University of Toronto. In general, boreal forest ecosystems, such as those of Canada, are more extremely affected by these increases in temperature.
Warmer weather in Canada means dryer seasons, more extreme storms that cause lightning, insect infestations creating more dead trees for wildfires to consume, and many other cascading effects. The Government of Canada predicts that "the area burned each year [is] potentially doubling by the end of this century", according to their department of Natural Resources.
More fires means more strains on the infrastructure Canada has in place to put these fires out. Even this year, they are relying on international teams from the United States, France, Mexico, New Zealand, Australia, and more to help in containing the forest fires. And on top of that, thousands of Canadian residents have been forced to evacuate and abandon their homes.
Lastly, millions of people in major metropolitan areas will continue to be exposed to harmful wildfire smoke that travels across borders as it has over this past week. The pollutant in wildfire smoke is PM2.5, or particulate matter that is smaller than 2.5 microns in width. That size is so small that it can be ingested through the lungs and dissolved into the bloodstream. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 can decrease lung function and contribute to heart disease. An increase in wildfires means and increase in exposure to this particulate matter.
The unprecedented poor air quality in New York is the result of unprecedented fires burning across Eastern Canada. A perfect storm of an unseasonably dry winter, turbulent weather, and winds blowing to the southeast sent smoke hundreds of miles to make for a very hazy, yellow afternoon yesterday in New York.
While the smokey air is likely to blow away over the coming days or even hours, the threat of these wildfires to Canadians and Americans alike will remain until they are all completely extinguished. And even then, an immediate and distant future is predicted where we will see even more wildfires across Eastern Canada.
We can conclude one thing for sure about this entire scenario - regardless of country, state, or city, we are all connected by the land that we live on and the atmosphere that we breathe. Our actions when it comes to stewardship for our planet affect far more than just our immediate surroundings, whether that means doing our best to prevent forest fires or reducing the fossil fuels that warm our atmosphere.
